IFX Market Report: Friday 9th August 2019

A dim light was lit at the end of a long tunnel yesterday by Mike Pompeo, who came out saying that the US will be waiting with ‘pen in hand’ to sign a post Brexit trade agreement, with the UK. Despite warnings from congressional lawmakers saying this deal would be blocked, Prime Minister Johnson continues to charge down the no deal highway. Mr. Pompeo made these comments following a meeting with Dominic Raab, the newly appointed foreign secretary, who is currently in Washington tasked with strengthening multi-lateral relations with the UK’s allies.

GBP/USD - Continues trading at a small range ahead of GDP data releases

GBP/EUR - Trading at two-year lows which, if broken, is likely to see a move to levels previously seen pre 2010.

EUR/USD - Has been hovering below the 1.12 mark as it tries to establish itself above 1.12 ahead of Fridays close.

In China, exports unexpectedly grew in July despite its trade war with the US showing the world's second-largest economy is defiant and pushing on without America. Exports rose 3.3% year-on-year in dollar terms, a bounce back from the 1.3% decline in June, according to Chinese customs data. Much of this was driven by growth in exports to Southeast Asia as trade was redirected from China to other countries.

Stateside, odds on a US recession within the next 12 months rose to 35% according to an August survey, up from 31% the previous month. Growth in the world’s largest economy will shrink from 2.5% seen in the month of march, down to an average of 2.3%. GDP growth is also forecast to slow form 3.1% in Q1 to 2.1 in Q2

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