IFX Market Report: Thursday 16th July 2020

There is little to report from yesterday, with Wednesday proving to be a pretty flat session.

Sterling did very little, amid ongoing fiscal and Brexit concerns. CPI data came in slightly better than expected, but it was not enough to impact the pound and investors are questioning whether the fiscal stimulus measures already in place will be enough to prop up the economy. There remains expectation that the Bank of England will need to increase its quantitative easing programme and lower interest rates further.

Regarding Brexit, Germany’s Europe Minister said yesterday that the UK has shown insufficient realism about what can be achieved. Talks look set to drag on as time becomes ever shorter.

This morning’s unemployment data has had no effect on the pound.

GBPUSD opened at 1.2604, closing at 1.2591

GBPEUR opened at 1.1021 and closed at 1.1038

Risk sentiment improved slightly in markets on Wednesday as progress toward a vaccine helped equities rebound and commodity currencies strengthen. US company Moderna has produced an experimental vaccine that provoked immune responses in all 45 volunteers, which sparked the risk revival. However, fears of a second-wave and simmering US trade tensions with China over Huawei tempered the mood.

The US dollar softened slightly and the dollar index dropped below 96 for the first time since June, hitting a one-month low of 95.77.

Traders will now look ahead to this afternoon’s retail sales data release.

The euro maintained its recent run against the dollar, holding above the 1.14 level. Markets are still waiting to see if the end-of-week summit produces accord among EU members.

With the ECB all but certain to keep rates on hold later today, pressure is mounting on leaders to agree on a recovery plan at the conference in Brussels.

The ECB delivers its decision at 1145 GMT, which will be followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 1230.

EURUSD opened at 1.1436 and closed at 1.1407

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