IFX Market Report: Wednesday 11th December 2019

The pound made slight gains on Tuesday against the dollar as markets continued to ignore economic data in favour of optimistic poll predictions for Thursday’s election. Investors are continuing to increase bets of Conservative majority though some political analysts are being more cautious. The pound was up 0.3% against the dollar despite data showing that the UK’s industrial output fell by 0.7% in the Q3 and the services sector grew by a weak 0.2% since June.

Against the euro the pound gained 0.1% but late last night a new YouGov poll indicated that the Conservative may be as large as 28 which is somewhat less than the 68 predicted near the start of the month. The pound subsequently fell 0.1% against the dollar.

GBPUSD opened at 1.3142 and climbed across the day, closing at 1.3177 and reaching an evening high of 1.3206 before dropping sharply after the YouGov poll release to 1.3110

GBPEUR opened at 1.1872 and despite making gains in the morning, these were mostly given up in the afternoon as the pair closed at 1.1882. The YouGov poll caused a drop to 1.1821

The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday after German economic sentiment helped the single currency. The euro gained 0.28% but this data is unlikely to change the general direction of EURUSD this year, having lost 3.3%. Movements yesterday were otherwise minimal as markets awaited new from central bank meetings in Europe and the US, aware that the December 15th deadline for US tariffs on Chinese goods are still due to come into place.

US-China trade talks are currently in an uncertain phase, with markets still unsure whether a trade deal can be agreed before December 15th. The dollar was up 0.16% against the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan was unchanged against the greenback.

EURUSD opened at 1.1072 and climbed steadily across the day to close at 1.1090

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