Market Updates
Middle East risk pulls GBP/USD both ways as data disappoints
1 min readConflict is keeping the majors penned into tight ranges, with safe-haven flows the clearest beneficiary. Middle East developments remain the dominant force across all three pairs this week, with risk-on/risk-off swings setting the tone.
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Fed decision looms whilst US China trade talks underway
3 min readIt’s all to play for this week. The US and China are on the verge of a truce and the ECB brace for a crucial health check on the Eurozone economy. Key storylines in the US tariff saga have reached a climax. There’s also some interesting news concerning something of a clean slate for South Africa and Nigeria, as far as money transfers in and out of the country are concerned.
Sterling steady ahead of key inflation test
3 min readInflationary pressures and fragile leadership positions abound this week. Currencies remain stable but there’s tension in the markets. Below we look at sterling’s performance ahead of crucial UK inflation data, the yen softens on expectations of looser policy under Japan’s likely new prime minister, and more.
Trade tensions ease as Trump opens door to China deal
4 min readTrade tensions between the US and China appear to be easing this morning after President Trump signalled openness to talks. There’s still plenty of turbulence there, however. Sterling remains on edge ahead of UK jobs data and November’s Autumn Statement, while in Europe, President Macron’s political gamble to reappoint Sébastien Lecornu is being closely watched by investors seeking signs of stability.
Euro slides as France faces fresh political turmoil
3 min readPolitical upheaval is the flavour of the week, with fiscal strain providing a bitter aftertaste. France sees yet another prime minister resign and the euro falls, while Washington’s budget deadlock continues to weigh on the dollar. The Yen also reacted to news of a new leader in Japan. Volatility is very much here to stay.
US government shutdown fears result in euro and pound gains
3 min readIt really is a house of cards. Deadlock over a short-term funding bill could trigger a US government shutdown this week, delaying Friday’s jobs data and weighing on the dollar. Sterling and other majors have firmed, though Reeves’ upcoming speech and downbeat OECD forecasts could temper sentiment.
Dollar steady as markets await Fed speakers
2 min readDollar holds ahead of Fed speakers, euro strength worries the ECB, and UK borrowing climbs to a five-year high, underscoring the challenge for central banks balancing currencies, inflation, and fiscal credibility.
Fed decision to test dollar’s direction
3 min readThe week ahead sees the Fed poised for its first rate cut since December, Fitch’s downgrade of France raising euro-zone concerns, and calls for the BoE to slow quantitative tightening amid rising borrowing costs.
France heads for political upheaval following no-confidence vote
3 min readFrench PM François Bayrou may rue his own decision to hold a confidence motion in his premiership this evening. The outcome is looking increasingly certain. We look at what the fallout from that will be, how it might affect ECB interest rate decisions later this week and more.
Dollar weakens ahead of key US data
3 min readA busy week of US data releases ahead have had an impact on dollar performance. And we share some other news, from the UK and Europe, that we think is worth your attention. Read on for more.