Tensions ease as the US and EU strike a last-minute trade deal, avoiding a tariff escalation that could have rattled global markets. Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer heads to Scotland for talks with Trump, as transatlantic trade relations come under fresh scrutiny. Trump’s broader economic agenda faces a crucial week, with key US data due and a Fed rate decision looming.
Current rates
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| eur usd | 1.1718 |
| gbp eur | 1.1457 |
| gbp usd | 1.3429 |
Rates correct as of 08:00am on Monday 28 July but may now have changed.
The Big 3
Three stories covering the latest developments in economies, currencies and borders.
US and EU avoid trade showdown
The US and EU have struck a last-minute trade deal, narrowly avoiding a major escalation in tariffs. Under the agreement, the EU will face a 15% tariff on most exports — including cars — from August 1st. Leaders framed the move as a stabilising step for global trade, though full details remain undisclosed.
The announcement lifted market sentiment, with European stocks and the euro both gaining ground. While EU officials welcomed the deal as a path to “predictability,” critics warned it risks deepening trade imbalances, as US exports face fewer barriers. Industry groups in Germany described the outcome as a damaging signal for transatlantic trade.
Man of steel tariffs: Trump and Starmer face trade test
Donald Trump will host UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Scotland on Monday, following the US President’s newly announced trade deal with the EU. Talks are expected to cover US–UK trade, the worsening crisis in Gaza, and wider security issues including Ukraine.
Trump has ruled out lowering tariffs on steel and aluminium but described the UK trade deal as “concluded,” suggesting Starmer would welcome recent progress. The two leaders will meet at Trump’s Turnberry resort before continuing to another of his Scottish properties.
Big Week, bigger consequences?
Trump’s economic record faces fresh scrutiny this week as key data lands, including GDP, inflation, jobs, and consumer confidence. The Fed will also decide whether to hold or cut rates, with markets watching closely. At the same time, Trump’s tariff strategy comes under pressure: a legal challenge on their validity begins, a trade framework with China is under negotiation, and a deadline looms for finalising tariffs on over 200 partners. Early signals suggest a still-resilient economy, but signs of strain are emerging.
Looking forward
All eyes will be on key interest rate decisions this week.
- Tuesday: US JOLTs job openings data released
- Wednesday: EU and US GDP growth rates published; Federal Reserve announces rate decision
- Thursday: US personal income and spending figures in focus
- Friday: Eurozone inflation, US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and ISM Manufacturing PMI released
Here’s what we’re talking to our clients about
We’re always here to support. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- If the EURUSD rate can remain here
- Will the EU experience changes in their tariffs and what are the specifics for the UK?
- Did Donald cheat on the golf course?
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only.