Is the shutdown close to an end? Markets took a breather as Washington edges closer to reopening. After weeks of political gridlock, a rare break of ranks in the US Senate has steadied global sentiment, while a data drought keeps volatility muted across major currencies. In the UK, sterling’s modest rebound looks more like a pause for air than a change in direction, with uncertainty lingering ahead of the November Budget.
Current rates
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| eur usd | 1.1562 |
| gbp eur | 1.1380 |
| gbp usd | 1.3158 |
Rates correct as of 10:45am on Monday 10 November but may now have changed.
The Big 3
Three stories covering the latest developments in economies, currencies and borders.
Shutdown breakthrough offers glimmer of hope for markets
The US government shutdown, now the longest in history, may be nearing its end after the Senate advanced a bill to restore funding to key departments. The measure still faces hurdles in the House before making it way to the President’s desk, but optimism lifted yields, with 10-year Treasuries up three basis points to 4.13%. The yen, typically a safe haven, slipped 0.3% against the dollar as investors tentatively priced in progress.
Sterling stages modest rebound but momentum fragile
Sterling has edged higher against the euro after hitting two-year lows last week, climbing to 1.1375 amid a technical correction. The move looks more like a pause in the downtrend than a turnaround, with uncertainty ahead of November’s UK Budget keeping traders cautious. Weak labour data this week could easily reverse gains, leaving fresh 2025 lows on the horizon.
Market volatility currently absent amidst shutdown
Currency volatility has fallen to multi-year lows as the prolonged US shutdown starves investors of key data and dampens trading appetite. With little clarity on inflation or jobs, many are avoiding large dollar positions, leaving the ICE Move Index at four-year lows. A quieter macro calendar may limit movement near-term, but it also sets the stage for sharp reactions when the next shock lands.
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Looking forward
- Monday: AUD Consumer Confidence Change
- Tuesday: UK jobs data. Brazil publishes CPI. Veterans Day in US. ZEW Economic Sentiment Index.
- Wednesday: Germany CPI.
- Thursday: UK reports GDP. US Inflation data due.
- Friday: Eurozone reports GDP. CNY retail sales. US PPI due.
Here’s what we’re talking to our clients about
We’re always here to support. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- Risk management ahead of the UK Budget
- US government shutdown impact
- Several Fed officials due to speak this week ahead of rate cut decision
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.