In this week’s update we look at the news of a likely Fed chair change, the impact of the budget on GBP, and eurozone market activity impacting the major currency pairs.
As a reminder, as well as our weekly updates you can also get in depth technical reports from our new FX Market Analyst, Joe Tuckey. Each week he’ll be looking at the forces driving FX markets and the technicals behind key moves, to keep our readers informed.
If you want to receive the full reports in your inbox each week, click the links below or head to our subscribe page to sign up.
Current rates
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3245 |
| eur usd | 1.1632 |
| gbp eur | 1.1385 |
Rates correct as of 12:30pm on Monday 1 December but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Click below to get the full report.
GBP/USD steadies as markets eye December cuts
Sterling steadied last week as the Budget delivered few surprises. In fact markets welcomed the larger rise in fiscal headroom and broadly expected tax measures, while the modestly disinflationary impact keeps a December BoE cut firmly in view. Read on to find out what could be ahead. At the same time, dollar strength eased after weak U.S. retail sales and growing expectations that Kevin Hassett – seen as more dovish – is set to become the next Fed Chair, with a Fed rate cut increasingly likely.
Rate policy divergence and softer dollar support EUR/USD
The euro gained against a softer dollar, supported by expectations that ECB-Fed policy divergence will persist. Lagarde and ECB minutes reinforced a steady rate outlook, while Germany’s 2026 budget added a modest tailwind. With EU CPI unlikely to shift expectations, EUR/USD will largely track dollar moves this week – where weaker U.S. retail sales and the prospect of dovish Fed Chair Hassett have already weighed. Read on for technical analysis of what the week ahead could hold for the euro.
GBP/EUR holds firm ahead of key eurozone data
GBP/EUR remained largely rangebound after the Budget, with much of the pre-announcement sterling weakness already priced in. Euro support continues from steady ECB policy, Germany’s 2026 budget, and ongoing geopolitical developments, including Ukraine talks. With little major economic data this week, sterling gains may be capped, leaving GBP/EUR to trade within a defined range as market focus stays on policy signals and eurozone risk sentiment.
Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: Manufacturing data for China, eurozone, UK, and the US. MPC member Dhingra speaks.
- Tuesday: Fed chair Powell speaks. Eurozone CPI. Japan consumer confidence. OECD publishes its latest economic outlook.
- Wednesday: MPC member Mann speaks. ISM services PMI and non-farm employment change in US.
- Thursday: US unemployment claims. MPC Greene speaks.
- Friday: Eurozone GDP. US PCE price index and consumer spending data.
Here’s what we’re talking to our clients about
We’re always here to support. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- What does the budget mean for you?
- Fed chair change and likelihood of cuts.
- Looking at FY26 and supporting business plans.
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.