Ceasefire optimism fades as markets brace for a pivotal week

Ceasefire optimism fades as markets brace for a pivotal week

A US-Iran ceasefire sparked a wave of risk-on sentiment last week where equities rallied, oil slumped and the dollar weakened. But negotiations over the weekend made little headway, and markets are already pulling back. Central bank commentary will also be in focus this week, while US PPI data will offer a fresh read on inflationary pressures.

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Current FX rates: 13 April 2026

Currency pair Rate
gbp usd 1.3442
eur usd 1.1697
gbp eur 1.1492

Rates correct as of 12:35pm on Monday 13 April but may now have changed.

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The Big 3

A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.

Ceasefire sparks sterling rally but doubts over durability persist

GBP/USD pushed sharply higher last week after a last-minute US-Iran ceasefire triggered a risk-on move across markets and the dollar weakened. But weekend talks yielded little progress, and the two-week ceasefire expires at the end of this week, leaving gains looking fragile. BoE Governor Bailey speaks twice this week and may offer some clarity on rate policy thinking, while Thursday’s GDP data underlines the UK’s subdued growth picture.

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Euro gains on dollar weakness but faces a pivotal week

EUR/USD also benefited from post-ceasefire dollar weakness, though gains have already begun to fade after weekend negotiations stalled. A Lagarde speech on Tuesday will be closely watched for signals on ECB rate policy. In the background, Hungary’s election result dealt a blow to the more right-wing, Trump-aligned political movement in Europe – not a direct euro driver, but a notable shift in the broader political tone.

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Sterling edges higher on EU alignment hopes but upside looks limited

GBP/EUR has been relatively quiet, with both currencies similarly affected by Middle East developments. The ceasefire prompted markets to remove a full 0.25% hike from both BoE and ECB expectations, though that could reverse just as quickly. Sterling found a modest lift early this week from Starmer’s move toward dynamic alignment with the EU, a topic that tends to support the pound even if the boost proves short-lived.

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Looking forward

Key dates for your calendar. 

  • Monday: US home sales. India publishes CPI. OPEC monthly oil market report.
  • Tuesday: Australia business and consumer confidence. US PPI. China trade data.
  • Wednesday: Fed speeches. UK production and manufacturing data. ECB Lagarde speech. BoE Bailey speech.
  • Thursday: China reports GDP. UK GDP.
  • Friday: Eurozone Balance of Trade. Fed Barkin and Waller speeches.

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The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.

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