Conflict is keeping the majors penned into tight ranges, with safe-haven flows the clearest beneficiary. Middle East developments remain the dominant force across all three pairs this week, with risk-on/risk-off swings setting the tone. Softer US data unwound some dollar strength, though hawkish Fed commentary keeps a year-end hike in play. Sterling sits on hold after weak UK data, while the euro draws firmer support as ECB hawks gain ground and a June hike comes into view. Friday's US payrolls are the week's key release.
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Today's FX rates: 1 June 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3461 |
| eur usd | 1.1645 |
| gbp eur | 1.1558 |
Rates correct as of 12:05pm on Monday 1 June but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Sterling and dollar both soften as data disappoints
GBP/USD stayed rangebound last week, pulled between Middle East de-escalation hopes and a returning dollar bid as tensions flared again. UK data tested sterling’s resilience, with April retail sales falling twice as much as forecast, reinforcing expectations the BoE holds in coming meetings. Softer US data unwound some dollar strength, even as hawkish Fed commentary points to a hike later this year. Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls and Bailey’s conference speech are the events to watch.
Hawkish ECB and ceasefire hopes tilt EUR/USD higher
EUR/USD recovered from sub-1.16 last week as the softer dollar and ceasefire-driven risk-on tone took hold. With Middle East developments still steering sentiment, the euro’s own story is turning more constructive: ECB hawks are gaining ground, and a 11 June hike is now seen as the most likely outcome. Tomorrow’s eurozone inflation print, expected at 3.3%, could cement that view. Friday’s US payrolls remain the other key release.
Sterling gains capped as the euro holds the edge
GBP/EUR ran into resistance at 1.1610 again, a level that’s held firm for weeks. With sterling kept in check by soft UK data and political risk, and the euro underpinned by a likely 11 June ECB hike, the balance tilts to the downside. Tuesday’s eurozone inflation print is the one to watch.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: US ISM Manufacturing data. China manufacturing data.
- Tuesday: Eurozone and South Korea report CPI. US reports job openings.
- Wednesday: The Fed publishes beige book. Australia reports GDP. OECD releases economic outlook. US ISM Services PMI and ADP Non-Farm employment change.
- Thursday: Australia Balance of Trade.
- Friday: The US and Canada unemployment rate. US Non-Farm Payrolls. Canada Ivey PMI. Eurozone reports GDP.
What we’re talking to our clients about
IFX Payments is service led. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- Middle East tensions and oil rising
- US data this week
- Our team are at Money20/20 Europe this week
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.