New PM Burnham caught markets off guard this week by naming John Healey as Chancellor, prompting a gilt sell-off and thrusting sterling’s fiscal outlook back into focus. It was the standout jolt in an otherwise quiet, summer-lull in FX markets. Thursday’s ECB meeting and tomorrow’s UK inflation print are the week’s key events.
Read our market update summaries and subscribe to get the full technical reports.
Today’s FX rates: 21 July 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3423 |
| eur usd | 1.1425 |
| gbp eur | 1.1747 |
Rates correct as of 11:50am on Monday 21 July but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Healey surprise as Chancellor stirs sterling
GBP/USD pushed to 1.3550 last week as softer US inflation weakened the dollar. Attention now turns to the surprise appointment of John Healey as Chancellor, with gilts selling off on talk of greater fiscal flexibility. Markets will watch to see whether his defence and re-industrialisation priorities mean looser spending or reallocation within tight limits. Sterling volatility could pick up as a result. The BoE stays in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s UK inflation print, forecast at 2.7%.
Euro drifts as the ECB meeting takes focus
EUR/USD stayed rangebound in quiet, summer-lull trading, with FX largely ignoring Middle East developments. Thursday’s ECB meeting is the focus: no rate change is expected, but rising oil prices point to Lagarde striking a hawkish tone, with another hike still leaning towards September. The mix of a hawkish bias and weak eurozone growth has weighed on the euro, though downside momentum has faded.
GBP/EUR eases back as speculators take profit
GBP/EUR is easing from last week’s overbought highs, slipping from 1.1805 as speculators take profit after the recent run higher. The fiscal picture is the domestic focus, with new Chancellor Healey expected to lean into defence spending. Markets will weigh whether that means looser purse strings or reallocation within tight limits. On the euro side, the ECB is set to hold on Thursday, though rising oil should have Lagarde striking a hawkish tone, with a September hike still in view.
Remember, email subscribers get full technical analysis on all the updates and currencies above. Don’t miss out – subscribe here.
Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Tuesday: 🇬🇧 UK Unemployment Rate, 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
- Wednesday: 🇯🇵 Japan Balance of Trade, 🇬🇧 UK Inflation Rate (CPI)
- Thursday: 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision, 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference
- Friday: 🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Rate, 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales, 🇪🇺 Eurozone GfK Consumer Confidence, 🇪🇺 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Flash, 🇬🇧 UK Manufacturing PMI Flash, 🇬🇧 UK Services PMI Flash
What we’re talking to our clients about
Clients can always reach out to us on the phone. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- New UK PM and cabinet appointments
- UK inflation data this week
- ECB meeting and forecast
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
