Both the BoE and Fed meet this week and whilst holds are the base case on each side, the Fed is the one to watch. A slim chance of a hike is already priced in, but new Chair Warsh’s hawkish leanings leave a surprise move as a live tail risk, one that could spark a dollar rally. The BoE is set to hold after softer UK inflation, with the MPC vote split the main interest. Sterling’s fiscal outlook under Burnham stays in focus.
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Today’s FX rates: 27 July 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3317 |
| eur usd | 1.1394 |
| gbp eur | 1.1688 |
Rates correct as of 12:00am on Monday 27 July but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Sterling slides ahead of busy central bank week
GBP/USD slid last week as speculators unwound the positions built around Burnham’s arrival. A firmer dollar found support from higher oil. The pair stays rangebound ahead of a busy week, with both the BoE and Fed meeting. The BoE looks set to hold, though the MPC vote split is worth watching for any sterling support. The bigger risk sits with the Fed: a hold is the base case, but Warsh’s hawkish leanings leave a surprise hike as a live tail risk.
EUR/USD still rangebound ahead of the Fed
EUR/USD stayed in a tight range last week as the ECB held rates, just as expected. Lagarde struck the hawkish tone we’d flagged, although a hike was discussed before the unanimous hold, with the data between now and September set to decide whether a September move firms up. The Fed is likely to hold this week, with a Warsh-driven hike still a tail risk, so the pair looks likely to hold current levels.
GBP/EUR retraces as both central banks hold
GBP/EUR continues to unwind from last week’s overbought highs, with both central banks in holding mode. The BoE is expected to hold on Thursday, so attention falls to the nine-member vote split and on Burnham’s fiscal plans. On the euro side, Lagarde kept a September hike in play, and Friday’s eurozone inflation print, forecast at 2.9%, could firm up those expectations if it surprises higher.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: 🇪🇺 Eurozone Ifo Business Climate, 🇺🇸 US Durable Goods Orders
- Tuesday: 🇨🇳 China Politburo Meeting
- Wednesday: 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision, 🇺🇸 Fed Press Conference
- Thursday: 🇯🇵 Japan Consumer Confidence, 🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP Growth Rate, 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision, 🇪🇺 Eurozone Inflation Rate (Prel), 🇺🇸 US GDP Growth Rate, 🇺🇸 US Core PCE Price Index, 🇺🇸 US Personal Income & Spending
- Friday: 🇨🇳 China NBS Manufacturing PMI, 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision, 🇪🇺 Eurozone Inflation Rate (Flash)
What we’re talking to our clients about
Clients can always reach out to us on the phone. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- Central Bank meetings this week
- Dollar impact from conflict de-escalation
- Economic impact of France/Spain wildfires
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
