Renewed US/Iran escalation has driven oil sharply higher, keeping inflation risks live and pushing central banks in the same direction. The ECB has already hiked, a Fed move on Wednesday is priced at 90%, and UK markets are now looking for several hikes over the coming year. Those decisions are largely priced in, as the ECB proved last week when its hike did little for the euro, so tone is what matters. Thursday’s BoE meeting and the MPC vote split will be this week’s test for sterling. Read our reports for more.
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Today’s FX rates: 14 September 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3487 |
| eur usd | 1.1541 |
| gbp eur | 1.1685 |
Rates correct as of 11:00am on Monday 14 September but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week.
Central bank moves priced in but oil keeps inflation risks alive
GBP/USD held a tight range ahead of this week’s BoE and Fed meetings, with surging oil keeping inflation risks live on both sides. Markets now put a Fed hike at close to 90%, so the dollar’s direction will hinge more on Warsh’s language and the dot plot than the decision itself. The BoE is expected to hold, though a stronger UK GDP and inflation print, forecast at 3.1%, build the hawkish case. The MPC vote split is the one to watch for sterling.
Euro slips as the ECB hike fails to lift it
EUR/USD is breaking below key support after a week in tight ranges. The ECB’s hike was fully priced and did little for the euro, though Lagarde’s hawkish message and resilient growth keep an October move in play. The dollar has the upper hand for now, with US/Iran escalation lifting oil and a Fed hike this week priced at 90%. Wednesday’s meeting is the main event.
Sterling gains as Iran escalation hits the euro
GBP/EUR held steady after the ECB’s fully priced hike, but the euro is under pressure to start the week as renewed Iran escalation exposes Europe’s energy vulnerability, with gas storage at 67%, well below last year. Higher energy costs argue for more ECB hikes, though a weakening growth outlook could unwind those hawkish expectations. Sterling has firmer footing and there’s a busy week ahead for the currency.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: 🇨🇦 Canada Inflation Rate
- Tuesday: 🇨🇳 China Industrial Production, China Retail Sales, 🇬🇧 UK Unemployment Rate, 🇪🇺 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
- Wednesday: 🇯🇵 Japan Balance of Trade, 🇬🇧 UK Inflation Rate (CPI), 🇺🇸 US Retail Sales, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference
- Thursday: 🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision, 🇺🇸 US Housing Starts, US Building Permits
- Friday: 🇯🇵 Japan Inflation Rate, BoJ Interest Rate Decision, 🇬🇧 UK Retail Sales
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
