It really is a house of cards. Deadlock over a short-term funding bill could trigger a US government shutdown this week, delaying Friday’s jobs data and weighing on the dollar. Sterling and other majors have firmed, though Reeves’ upcoming speech and downbeat OECD forecasts could temper sentiment.
Read on to find out more.
Current rates
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| eur usd | 1.1719 |
| gbp eur | 1.1462 |
| gbp usd | 1.3438 |
Rates correct as of 10:30am on Monday 29 September but may now have changed.
The Big 3
Three stories covering the latest developments in economies, currencies and borders.
US government shutdown fears result in euro and pound gains
The risk of a government shutdown looms large in Washington, threatening the release of jobs data scheduled for Friday. The dollar lost prior gains in response, with the pound and euro both rising. Congressional leaders are racing to pass a stopgap spending bill before October 1, which would keep the government open for business, however negotiations have been stalling over healthcare funding. A shutdown would likely delay Friday’s nonfarm payrolls release, clouding visibility on the Fed’s next move. Gold surged to fresh record highs of over $3,800 an ounce, in the wake of greenback’s weakness. Investors still expect subdued US jobs growth in September, with additional data due this week to shape market bets on the Fed’s late-October meeting.
[Reuters]
Reeves searching for support ahead of Labour conference speech
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will speak to the Labour Party conference today hoping to strike a balance between growth plans and fiscal restraint, as she seeks to regain backing from increasingly wary colleagues and strengthen Britain’s position in the markets. Reeves has indicated VAT hikes are off the cards but wider tax rises are looking increasingly likely; global pressures have changed the name of the game. With 10-year gilt yields at 4.75% – the highest among G7 peers – investors will be watching closely for signs of reassurance. The speech will likely be a critical moment for both Reeves’ credibility and market confidence ahead of her November budget.
Global growth expected to drop this year says OECD
The OECD has warned that Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs risk knocking global growth to 2.9% in 2026, down from the 3.2% forecast for this year, despite short-term resilience from front-loaded trade. The effective tariff rate of 19.5% marks the steepest protectionist move since the 1930s, with the full impact yet to materialise. The OECD also had bad news for the UK’s current economic outlook. Forecasts show it posting the highest inflation in the G7 this year, well above the US, as tighter fiscal policy also drags on growth. With Reeves set to deliver her tax-heavy budget in November, headwinds for the UK economy are mounting.
Looking forward
- Monday: UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Labour Party Conference speech. Spain CPI.
- Tuesday: CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI. US Job openings. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer Labour Party Conference speech.
- Wednesday: US Manufacturing PMI. France, Italy and Germany report CPI.
- Friday: Japan reports jobs data. US scheduled to publish September Jobs data. German public holiday.
Here’s what we’re talking to our clients about
We’re always here to support. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- Trump and Netanyahu meeting impact
- UK economic outlook ahead of budget
- The Fed’s interest rate path for H2
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only.