Sterling edged higher this week as Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister, with Andy Burnham’s path to Number 10 now confirmed. Markets have taken the transition in their stride, with Burnham’s deliberate effort to reassure gilt and FX markets, including the appointment of three economic advisors, keeping volatility muted for now.
Meanwhile, new Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish debut drove a sharp dollar rally, pushing GBP/USD to test key support at 1.3140 and EUR/USD below the significant 1.15 level to March lows. This week, Thursday’s Core PCE reading is the key data point to watch across all three pairs.
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Today’s FX rates: 22 June 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3239 |
| eur usd | 1.1428 |
| gbp eur | 1.1584 |
Rates correct as of 14:03pm on Monday 22 June but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Sterling firmer as Starmer stands aside
GBP/USD traded lower last week, almost testing key technical support at 1.3140, as a sharp dollar rally in the aftermath of the Fed meeting proved the dominant force. New Fed Chair Warsh dispelled expectations of a dovish pivot, with his commitment to deliver 2% inflation described as “strong, unanimous and unambiguous.” On the UK side, the BoE held rates at a 7-2 vote split, while Burnham’s path to Number 10 is now confirmed following Starmer’s resignation. Markets have taken the political transition in their stride, though who ends up as Chancellor will be closely watched for fiscal implications.
Stagflation dynamics currently hurting the euro
EUR/USD slipped below the key 1.15 level last week, breaching significant chart support as Warsh’s hawkish Fed debut drove a sharp dollar rally. The pair is now testing March lows around 1.1443, with stagflation dynamics adding further pressure. The ECB continuing to tackle above-target inflation against a backdrop of weak growth is a difficult combination for the currency. Speculative appetite to sell into rallies remains elevated, and with little on the horizon to shift that dynamic, the near-term bias stays to the downside.
GBP/EUR holds steady amid political transition
GBP/EUR remains in a sideways consolidation with no clear trend, as both currencies navigate their own headwinds. Sterling has edged higher on the Starmer resignation, with Burnham’s market-friendly approach keeping volatility muted for now. Against the euro, however, the stagflation narrative continues to weigh, and the pair oscillates between key support at 1.1512 and resistance at 1.1610. Expect ranges to remain intact in the near term, with Q4 potentially bringing more sterling volatility as political pressures build.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: Nothing to report
- Tuesday: 09:30 🇬🇧 GBP – Services PMI Flash & Manufacturing PMI Flash
- Wednesday: Nothing to report
- Thursday: 13:30 🇺🇸 USD – Core PCE, GDP Final, Durable Goods Orders
- Friday: Nothing to report
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
