A US/Iran peace deal, due to be signed in Switzerland, has lifted risk appetite and softened the dollar to start the week. The other big levers are the central bank meetings this week. The ECB has already moved, hiking last week with another hike likely by September, while the Fed and BoE will almost certainly sit tight. The bigger intrigue is around the people involved: Warsh’s debut as Fed Chair, and how the MPC splits its vote will be watched for longer term signals.
Read our market update summaries and subscribe to get the full technical reports.
Today’s FX rates: 15 June 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3432 |
| eur usd | 1.1613 |
| gbp eur | 1.1565 |
Rates correct as of 11.45pm on Monday 15 June but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Peace deal softens dollar ahead of central bank meetings
GBP/USD opens the week higher as a US/Iran peace deal, due to be signed in Switzerland, drives a risk-on rally and a softer dollar. Both the Fed and BoE will meet this week, with rates expected to hold on each side. The focus falls on new Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting and how the nine-member MPC splits its vote. Thursday’s Makerfield by-election adds a layer of UK political risk to the mix.
Euro firms as the ECB pulls ahead on rates
EUR/USD bounced off support at 1.15 after the ECB’s 0.25% hike and has seen a further boost as the US/Iran deal weakens the dollar. With another hike priced by September, the ECB sits firmly ahead of the BoE and Fed, and recent member comments have leaned more hawkish still. That backdrop, plus the risk-on mood, leaves the bias to the upside. Wednesday’s FOMC and the tone of Warsh’s first meeting are the week’s key watch.
Rate divergence caps sterling against the euro
Sterling sits a touch softer against the euro in tight ranges to start the week. The ECB’s 0.25% hike won’t be matched by the BoE on Thursday, where the focus falls on the nine-member MPC vote split for signs of future appetite. With the ECB likely to hike in September while the BoE stays on hold, the euro holds the edge. Sterling looks unlikely to mount a meaningful rally and Thursday’s Makerfield by-election is one to watch.
Remember, email subscribers get full technical analysis on all the updates and currencies above. Don’t miss out – subscribe here.
Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: G7 Leaders summit begins.
- Tuesday: BoJ interest rate meeting. China retail sales and industrial production. ZEW economic sentiment. US housing and building data.
- Wednesday: Fed meeting. Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as chair. US retail sales. UK CPI. Japan balance of trade.
- Thursday: BoE meeting. UK jobs data.
- Friday: US markets closed. Japan inflation rate. UK retail sales.
What we’re talking to our clients about
IFX Payments is service led. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- US/Iran peace deal and energy costs
- Central bank meetings and data releases this week
- ibanq 2.0 (our new platform)
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
