A sharp US jobs miss set the tone last week, with NFP at 57K against the 113K expected, softening the dollar and trimming near-term Fed hike bets. At the ECB’s annual gathering in Sintra, the central bank message was patience: Warsh flagged easing inflation risks but kept his focus on target, while Bailey held UK cuts “off the table”. The euro lagged as markets cooled on further ECB hikes, and sterling broke out against it.
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Today’s FX rates: 06 July 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3336 |
| eur usd | 1.1415 |
| gbp eur | 1.1679 |
Rates correct as of 11:50am on Monday 06 July but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Payrolls miss knocks the dollar off its highs
GBP/USD rallied as the dollar softened on quarter-end flows and a much weaker jobs report, with NFP at 57K against 113K expected. That trimmed the odds of a near-term Fed hike and unwound some crowded long-dollar positioning. Warsh struck a softer note at Sintra, though his focus stays on inflation with the labour market still strong. Bailey kept UK cuts “off the table”. Services PMI and the FOMC minutes are the week’s key reads.
Weak jobs data lifts the euro, but the bias is muted
EUR/USD bounced off the back of a softer dollar and a sharp US jobs miss, with NFP at 57K against 113K expected. However, the move looks counter-trend rather than a turn and the euro faces challenges of it’s own. Markets are less sure of a July ECB hike, Lagarde admitted she doesn’t know if they’ll tighten again, and softer eurozone inflation points to a rangebound euro with a modest downside bias. As with GBP/USD – the focus this week is on the data and minutes coming from the US.
Sterling breaks out against the euro above 1.1610
GBP/EUR finally cleared 1.1610 last week, a level that had capped it for months, opening the door to further upside while price holds above it. With a light data week, technicals take over. The backdrop has turned in sterling’s favour: those comments from Governor Bailey and lower oil helps a net energy importer, while markets have cooled on ECB hikes as Lagarde sat on the fence. That leaves the euro on the back foot and the bias higher.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Monday: US ISM Services PMI, Eurozone Retail Sales, ECB Lagarde Speech
- Tuesday: Canada Ivey PMI
- Wednesday: US FOMC minutes
- Thursday: China Inflation Rate, German Balance of Trade, US Existing Home Sales
- Friday: Canada Unemployment Rate
What we’re talking to our clients about
Clients can always reach out to us on the phone. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- This morning… The World Cup, of course!
- UK political instability
- GBP/EUR movements
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
