A bumper US jobs report reset the tone last week, driving a sharp dollar rally and lifting the odds of a December Fed hike from around 40% to 70%. Renewed Middle East escalation keeps oil and the dollar supported. Attention now turns to Thursday's ECB meeting, where a 0.25% hike is fully priced and Lagarde's signals on back-to-back moves are the real focus. Read on for more.
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Today's FX rates: 8 June 2026
| Currency pair | Rate |
|---|---|
| gbp usd | 1.3365 |
| eur usd | 1.1541 |
| gbp eur | 1.1580 |
Rates correct as of 12:30pm on Monday 8 June but may now have changed.
The Big 3
A deeper look at the performance of major currency pairs this week. Become a subscriber to receive the full reports.
Stellar US jobs data powers a dollar rally
A blowout US jobs report drove a sharp dollar rally last week, with payrolls of 172K against 85K expected lifting the odds of a December Fed rate hike. That capped GBP/USD’s earlier climb on moderating oil prices. Weekend missile exchanges between Iran and Israel add further oil and dollar support. With the BoE split on its own path, US CPI and UK GDP are the week’s key tests.
All eyes on Lagarde as ECB hike expected to land
EUR/USD slipped to the low 1.15s as the strong US jobs data fed last week’s dollar rally. Focus now shifts to Thursday’s ECB meeting, where a 0.25% hike is fully priced. The real interest is Lagarde’s tone: any hint of back-to-back June and July hikes could hand the euro some support. Dollar gains may yet fade but US CPI is the other release that may have an impact.
ECB and BoE divergence sets the tone for GBP/EUR
GBP/EUR held a tight range while the dollar took the spotlight. The week’s pivot is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where a hike is expected and Lagarde’s signals on back-to-back moves are the real focus. With the BoE likely to stay more patient, the euro holds the firmer hand, though UK political risk is building ahead of next week’s Makerfield by-election. Friday’s UK GDP is the domestic read to watch.
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Looking forward
Key dates for your calendar.
- Tuesday: China trade data. US existing home sales. Australian Consumer and business confidence data. Eurozone Balance of Trade.
- Wednesday: The US, China and Japan all report inflation data. Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
- Thursday: ECB interest rate decision (likely hike). US PPI.
- Friday: UK GDP. US Michigan consumer sentiment.
What we’re talking to our clients about
IFX Payments is service led. Here are some of the conversations we’re having:
- US Dollar strength on back of jobs data
- US CPI and UK GDP this week
- Renewed tensions following Iran strikes
The contents of this article do not constitute financial advice and are provided for general information purposes only. While the content is based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication, no guarantee is provided.
